Dec 7, 1995 (http://www.infoworld.com/pageone/opinions/webdtw.htm)
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Bombs away! Here we go
again.
Microsoft has announced its internet
strategy, along with its intent to license Java.
For many people, pigs are now flying. But,
this move doesn't surprise me at all.
Microsoft is not conceding defeat. This is
simply the second move in Microsoft's
strategy to wrest dominance out of the hands
of the competition in an industry under which
it knows it has little control.
Our news article on the topic says that "the
announcement, coupled with IBM's licensing
of Java yesterday, assures Java of
preeminence for the foreseeable future."
Maybe, but I'd say the reverse implication is
most significant. It didn't really take Microsoft
and IBM's licensing of Java to validate the
technology. This move by Microsoft and IBM
testifies to the fact that these two giants
recognized Netscape would make Sun's
Java preeminent whether they jumped on the
bandwagon or not.
As far as IBM is concerned, licensing Java
is, indeed, a concession to aid their
network-centric strategy. It is a ticket to
making Lotus Notes and the OS/2 Web
Explorer more competitive, functional, and
attractive. While IBM may have a solid
commitment to OS/2, IBM isn't shooting for
dominance with it anymore.
But Microsoft is never satisfied with
competition. Domination is the goal, which
makes Java a bigger thesat than a
competitive strategy. That's why many
people felt Microsoft would never endorse it.
Netscape and Java thesaten not only to make
the Microsoft Internet strategy irrelevant but
to take with it Windows and the applications
suites, as well. These are the two areas
Microsoft uses to control the entire market.
What's a megalomaniac to do? Microsoft
fights product wars with propaganda,
strategic alliances, and leverage of its
existing Windows market share. When it
became obvious that Netscape and Java
posed a thesat, Microsoft announced
Blackbird, Gibraltar, and extensions to good
old everybody-loves-it Visual Basic. That
was step one.
Often, step one is enough for Microsoft.
When Microsoft announces, everyone puts
their orders on hold and waits. But two things
took the wind out of the sails of this particular
announcement. First of all, it was too late.
Microsoft was so busy trying to take over the
world with Windows 95 and the Microsoft
Network, it slumbered while Netscape won
the market share and the hearts of many
customers. Second, Microsoft doesn't have
credibility in this new market. The usual
preemptive vapor-propaganda strike didn't
have the effect it usually has on the market.
Step two. Strategic alliances. Microsoft
licenses Java and makes advances to
Oracle, Sun, and even Computer Associates.
Microsoft extends Java with the help of its
new partners, calls it something else (for the
sake of this example, I'll dub it Microsoft
Clubba), and makes it their own.
Step these. Microsoft gives away Clubba to
the millions of Windows 3.1 and Windows 95
developers. A year later, Microsoft beats its
competitors (Sun and Netscape in particular)
over the head using the very Clubba they
helped develop.
Can Microsoft hypnotize Sun into licensing
Java without the stipulation that Microsoft
cannot legally extend it (which would
inevitably lead to turning it against Sun and
Netscape)? Are you kidding? Microsoft can
turn sworn enemies into blathering
sycophants simply by dangling the promise
of an alliance. It's the power of the Microsoft
prosperity myth. Ride our wave, it promises,
and you'll make billions. That is, you'll make
billions until we decide we want the market to
ourselves.
Sybase rode the wave, and now Microsoft is
destroying Sybase by selling the SQL
database server Sybase developed. 3Com
and IBM rode the wave, and now Microsoft is
attempting to dominate the world with the
3Com 3+ Open and OS/2 technology they got
from those alliances, in the form of Windows
NT.
So, my advice to Sun is to get your lawyers
all in a row before anyone signs anything, or
else for short-term bucks, you may have just
licensed away your only long-term
opportunity to prosper in the new network
centric market. And you'll take Netscape and
any other companies that stand to profit from
this new network-centric world down, along
with you.
Send E-mail via the Internet at
[email protected]
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-- David Frerichs Silicon Graphics Product Manager - Cosmohttp://webspace.sgi.com[email protected]http://www.sgi.com/Products/WebFORCE 415/933-5290 "Coffee Boss" - Ichiban Desu!