Re: Q#3: Crystal Ball

Robert A Schmitt ([email protected])
Fri, 13 Oct 1995 10:06:32 -0400 (EDT)

>
> One issue that has been overlooked here is the CPU performance wall that we
> expect to hit in the first few years of the next century. Where is all the
> processing power going to come from? Software parallelism won't provide the
> answers that soon, and distributed systems have a long long way to go.
>

How about single chip computers (cpu, memory, flash memory, etc)? Getting
eid of the various bus architectures and all the management schemes
necessary to connect components in current hardware will give us back large
quantities of processing power and immensely faster access times. This will
help to push the ultimate wall off 20 more years (my guess) at which point
some of the mentioned technolgies should be able to take us to The Next
Level (whatever that is).

> I guess then that my view is far more pessimistic. We'll see the same old 2D
> things taken into 3D in some way, but we won't see the full potential of 3D
> for some time longer.
>

As long as the capabilities stay in the hands of technologists, I agree. If
we can get the capabilities into the hands of everyone (theough Project Maya
and the like), I believe a whole new paradigm will emerge driven by people
with little or no background in the WIMP interface.

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